June 22, 2025
As a real estate broker in New York, one question I hear all the time is: “Is now a good time to buy in Manhattan?” After combing through years of market data and witnessing the ups and downs firsthand, my answer in 2025 is yes—especially if you’re a cash buyer or long-term investor.
Let’s break it down.
From Slowdown to Resurgence
Manhattan's real estate market peaked back in 2017, then entered a multi-year slump due to tax changes, oversupply in the luxury segment, and the natural rhythm of property cycles.
COVID hit in 2020, shutting the market down completely for months. For a minute, it genuinely felt like the city might never come back the same. Rents dropped 25%, inventory piled up, and everyone was talking about the "death of cities."
But here’s the thing—New York doesn’t stay down for long.
By mid-2021, we saw the biggest sales rebound in Manhattan history. Contracts were flying, demand skyrocketed, and people who left the city came rushing back. That momentum carried into early 2022, but the Fed's interest rate hikes cooled things off. We slid into a buyer’s market again through late 2023.
What’s Happening Now in 2025?
Q1 2025 tells a different story. Prices are climbing again—average condo prices are up 16.5% year-over-year, now averaging $3.12M with price per square foot nearing 2017’s peak at $2,130. Inventory is tightening, and transaction volume jumped nearly 50% from last year.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates are starting to tick down after two Fed cuts. If this trend continues, we’re likely to see more buyers flood back into the market, pushing prices even higher. In short, we’re transitioning into a seller’s market.
Rents Are Booming
If you’re thinking like an investor, the rental numbers are even more compelling. Average Manhattan rent hit $5,368 in February 2025—up 7.6% from the year before. Rents have rebounded hard since the pandemic, and investor rental yields are stronger than ever.
Many of my clients are seeing 40-70% rent increases from their pandemic lows. With demand holding strong, high rents are offsetting those still-elevated mortgage payments—and for cash buyers, the returns are looking real nice.
Why Manhattan Still Attracts Global Investors
International buyers haven’t backed off, either. Manhattan is one of only two Alpha++ cities in the world, next to London.
Wealthy buyers see it as a hedge against market volatility, with perks like depreciation tax benefits, price stability, and a proven track record of bouncing back—whether it’s after 9/11, the Great Recession, or COVID.
What Could Hold You Back?
Uncertainty in global markets and volatile stock performance may give some buyers pause. And for those relying on financing, high mortgage rates still sting.
But the tide is turning—interest rates are declining, inflation is easing, and financial deregulation under the Trump administration could boost Wall Street’s performance, which historically feeds the Manhattan market.
Final Take
If you’re looking for short-term flips or waiting for prices to tank again—you missed the bottom. But if you're playing the long game, investing for rental income, or buying in cash, this is a solid time to make your move.
The data’s pointing up, confidence is returning, and Manhattan’s resilience is proving itself all over again.
Disclaimer: This content is meant for informational purposes only and is not intended to be construed as financial, tax, legal, or insurance advice.
