April 28, 2025
While Trump’s sweeping new tariffs have sent global stock markets spiraling and sparked recession talk, there might be an unexpected winner in all this: the luxury real estate market. Yes, really.
Here’s the deal—affluent buyers are typically the ones most exposed to the ups and downs of the stock market. And right now? The market’s been a rollercoaster.
Since Trump took office, the S&P 500 dropped 15%, with global markets shedding an eye-watering $10 trillion in value. Tariffs flew back and forth between the U.S., China, and the EU, before a partial 90-day pause was announced—with China still facing a 125% hike.
This kind of volatility doesn’t sit well with high-net-worth individuals. When the markets get shaky, they start looking for more stable ground—and that’s often found in real estate.
Tangible, dependable, and (for the most part) slower to react to daily news cycles. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, put it best: in times of chaos, real estate becomes the new safe haven.
We’re already seeing this mindset shift in the data. At the end of 2024, U.S. residential real estate hit a total value of $48.1 trillion, with the biggest gains coming from the ultra-wealthy.
But here’s what’s even more telling: real estate made up just 18.7% of total assets for the top 10%—down from nearly 20% a couple years back. Meanwhile, stocks and mutual funds took up more than a third of their portfolios.
Translation? There’s still a lot of runway left for luxury real estate growth—especially in a city like New York.
Even international buyers are getting back in the mix. Russian investors, who had backed off for nearly a decade, are now touring NYC properties in the $10M–$20M range.
According to brokers, they’re no longer afraid to buy, pointing to relaxed scrutiny under the Trump administration and continued interest in U.S. education and luxury construction.
Despite high mortgage rates, luxury homes are still moving. In fact, properties over $1 million have been the fastest-growing segment in sales for 21 straight months, now accounting for 7.6% of total sales. These buyers typically pay cash, making them immune to rising interest rates.
That said, inventory is tightening. Listings above $1 million are down, price cuts are rare in the high-end space, and days on market for luxury homes are actually fewer than those in the sub-$1 million category.
So, if you’re in the luxury market as a buyer or seller, now might be the moment to strike. Political uncertainty and stock market jitters are pushing more wealthy individuals to view real estate as a financial refuge.
The tide could turn quickly depending on future policy moves, but for now, Manhattan’s high-end market looks poised to benefit.
Disclaimer: This content is meant for informational purposes only and is not intended to be construed as financial, tax, legal, or insurance advice.
